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​​The Science Behind Sea Level Rise: How Past Emissions Will Shape Our Future

Union of Concerned Scientists

Sea levels are rising, and science shows they will continue to rise for generations due to heat-trapping emissions that have already been released. Understanding sea level rise as a long-term, multi-generational problem is essential to comprehending the scale of climate change and the need for bold action now.

Sea Level 306
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Do Paris Agreement Temperature Goals Address Sea Level Rise and Climate Justice?

Union of Concerned Scientists

Sea level rise presents numerous climate justice issues. New research that I led as part of my PhD dissertation, which was just published in Earth’s Future , digs deep into the topic of sea level rise and climate justice. Climate justice research can help inform these conversations.

Sea Level 290
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Sea level in the IPCC 6th assessment report (AR6)

Real Climate

My top 3 impressions up-front: The sea level projections for the year 2100 have been adjusted upwards again. The IPCC gives more consideration to the large long-term sea-level rise beyond the year 2100. And here is the key sea-level graphic from the Summary for Policy Makers: Source: IPCC AR6, Figure SPM.8.

Sea Level 363
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Rising Seas, Rising Stakes: The Case for an International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion 

Union of Concerned Scientists

Heat-trapping emissions are continuing to rise while the gap between what is needed to keep Paris Agreement goals in reach and adapt to ongoing climate impacts is ever-widening. My research looks at issues of climate justice internationally, particularly as they relate to sea level rise and the Paris Agreement.

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Dr. Shaina Sadai Talks About COP27, Climate Justice, Sea Level Rise, and Corporate Accountability

Union of Concerned Scientists

An expert on sea level dynamics and climate justice within the UN negotiations, Dr. Sadai is working to ensure that her scientific studies get in the hands of decisionmakers who are shaping our world today. How did we end up with global average temperature as a metric in the Paris agreement?

Sea Level 246
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The Fossil Fuel Industry Continues Producing Heat-Trapping Emissions that Drive Climate Change

Union of Concerned Scientists

As I show below, their cumulative emissions have continued to rise over the decades even as international efforts to confront climate change have been enacted through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. I’ve marked these important years with dotted lines in Figure 2.

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Delays and Disagreements: The IPCC’s Struggle to Stay on Course

Union of Concerned Scientists

The GST is a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement , designed to periodically gauge collective progress and identify gaps in ambition. The key question remains whether timing will allow these reports to inform the next UNFCCC Global Stocktake (GST), expected to take place in 2028.