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New misguided interpretations of the greenhouse effect from William Kininmonth

Real Climate

Another clue is William Kininmonth’s ‘rethink’ on the greenhouse effect for The Global Warming Policy Foundation. When looking at the effect of changes in greenhouse gases, one must look at how their forcing corresponds to the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere. References. 679-688, 2016. 699-703, 2015.

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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect. This means that there is an upward surface flux of IR around (~398 W/m 2 ), while the outward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is roughly equivalent to the net solar radiation absorbed (~240 W/m 2 ). Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect.

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WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

Real Climate

As well as the (now) standard set of graphs related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations , rising temperatures , reducing glacier mass, etc., since the 1850-1900 baseline is very clearly associated with the increases in greenhouse gases, slightly (and decreasingly) modulated by the changes in atmospheric pollution.

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A CERES of fortunate events…

Real Climate

That is long enough to see that there has been a noticeable trend in the Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), mostly driven by a reduction in the solar radiation reflected by the planet, while the outgoing long wave radiation does not appear to contribute much. The simplest model for the greenhouse effect.

Radiation 307
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The definitive CO2/CH4 comparison post

Real Climate

So this is an attempt to put all of that in context and provide a hopefully comprehensive guide to how, when, and why to properly compare the two greenhouse gases. You might recall that GWP is defined as the ratio on per-kg basis of the temperature impact of other greenhouse gases compared to CO 2 over a specific time period.

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Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28

Real Climate

It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990 concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.”

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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

The radiative forcing bar chart has gone full circle: Almost every IPCC report has a version of the radiative bar chart showing the contributions over the historical period of all the different forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar, etc.). Oddly enough this is most reminiscent of the very first bar chart that appeared in Hansen et al.

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