Annual GMSAT predictions and ENSO
Real Climate
JANUARY 5, 2024
For the last few years ( since at least 2016 ), I’ve shared predictions for the next annual global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT) anomaly based on the long term trend and the state of ENSO at the start of the year. Generally speaking, this has been quite skillful compared to persistence or just the long term trend alone – the eventual anomaly was consistently within the predicted bounds.
Let's personalize your content