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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 294
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect. This means that there is an upward surface flux of IR around (~398 W/m 2 ), while the outward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is roughly equivalent to the net solar radiation absorbed (~240 W/m 2 ). Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect.

Radiation 353
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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

The radiative forcing bar chart has gone full circle: Almost every IPCC report has a version of the radiative bar chart showing the contributions over the historical period of all the different forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar, etc.). Oddly enough this is most reminiscent of the very first bar chart that appeared in Hansen et al.

Sea Level 362
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Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs

Real Climate

Also missing is any realization that clouds also contribute to the greenhouse effect (roughly 25% of the total) and so whether cloud changes warm or cool depends very much on where the clouds are (high clouds have a very different effect than low clouds for instance).

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The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”

Real Climate

These interactions were thought to lead to alternating decades-long intervals of warming and cooling centered in the extra-tropical North Atlantic that play out on 40-60 year timescales (hence the name). Background. any oscillation that was produced has to be internally generated.

Cooling 273
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Phantastic Job!

Real Climate

Warm temperatures prior to the Ordovician glaciation, rises of temperature through the Devonian, a dip through the Carboniferous, peaking again at the beginning of the Triassic, slightly cooler in the Jurassic, peaking again mid-Cretaceous and then (roughly speaking) cooling into the Neogene (and the last 3 million years of ice age cycles).

Sea Level 359
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Analysis: How fast can we stop Earth from warming??

A Greener Life

Picture how a radiator heats a home. Water is heated by a boiler, and the hot water circulates through pipes and radiators in the house. The radiators warm up and heat the air in the room. The radiators are, in fact, cooling down, but their stored heat is still warming the air in the room.