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What Is a Climate Model and How Does It Work?

Union of Concerned Scientists

Climate models are the main tool climate scientists use to predict how Earth will respond to more heat-trapping pollutants in the atmosphere. Just by looking at the name, you can see that a GCM is a model that simulates the circulation of Earths different physical systems like the atmosphere and ocean. What causes a circulation?

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Why the World Needs a New UN Study on the Effects of Nuclear War

Union of Concerned Scientists

New scientific information has yielded insights, including updates to our understanding of, and ability to model, the atmosphere, and the studies of the long-term effects of radiation on affected populations have yielded new information. New studies are being published and commissioned and research gaps are being identified.

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Why Were 2023 and 2024 So Hot?

Union of Concerned Scientists

In that year, El Nio added to the increased warming caused by the build-up of heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere, leading to that record-breaking heat. Albedo is the total reflection of incoming solar radiation by Earth. This question was a focus at the 2024 annual American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in Washington, D.C.,

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How Do ‘Future Climate Scenarios’ Shape Climate Science and Inform Policy? 

Union of Concerned Scientists

Four RCP scenarios describe different levels of radiative forcing in the atmosphere by 2100. Radiative forcing is the change in energy balance in the Earths atmosphere due to heat trapping emissions. These pathways describe different global socioeconomic conditions (e.g., Studies show that high-emission scenarios like SSP5-8.5

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Why Climate Scientists Are Sounding the Alarm on the Ocean Circulation System AMOC

Union of Concerned Scientists

The potential collapse of the AMOC—which could happen within this century, or be triggered within this century and play out over a longer timeframe—comes as a result of climate change caused by additional heat-trapping emissions like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But what exactly would cause the AMOC to collapse? What is the AMOC?

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WMO: Update on 2023/4 Anomalies

Real Climate

since the 1850-1900 baseline is very clearly associated with the increases in greenhouse gases, slightly (and decreasingly) modulated by the changes in atmospheric pollution. Dessler, "Evolution of the Climate Forcing During the Two Years After the Hunga TongaHunga Ha'apai Eruption", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , vol.

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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of infra-red (IR) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from; i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ºC) and, ii) knowing that the planet is normally close to radiative equilibrium.

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