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Why Were 2023 and 2024 So Hot?

Union of Concerned Scientists

In that year, El Nio added to the increased warming caused by the build-up of heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere, leading to that record-breaking heat. Albedo is the total reflection of incoming solar radiation by Earth. This question was a focus at the 2024 annual American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in Washington, D.C.,

2024 288
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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. But why is the stratosphere increasingly chill? The basic concept is easy to grasp though.

Cooling 297
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of infra-red (IR) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from; i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ºC) and, ii) knowing that the planet is normally close to radiative equilibrium.

Radiation 354
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Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs

Real Climate

Also missing is any realization that clouds also contribute to the greenhouse effect (roughly 25% of the total) and so whether cloud changes warm or cool depends very much on where the clouds are (high clouds have a very different effect than low clouds for instance).

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Plastic aerosols in the atmosphere could affect the climate

Physics World

Tiny particles of plastic in the atmosphere can affect Earth’s climate, according to Laura Revell at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand and colleagues. Yet even as airborne microplastics become an ever-larger part of the mix of atmospheric aerosols, their radiative influence is still virtually unknown. Altitude matters.

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New journal: Nature 2023?

Real Climate

The mix of warming and cooling effects and different timescales for each, makes calculating the impact hard. a net cooling!). Zhou, "Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , vol. They estimate 0.08

2023 215
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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 to 2012 as compared to the period 1951 to 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a cooling contribution from natural internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean ( medium confidence ).

Sea Level 362