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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. But why is the stratosphere increasingly chill? The basic concept is easy to grasp though.

Cooling 286
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of infra-red (IR) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from; i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ÂșC) and, ii) knowing that the planet is normally close to radiative equilibrium.

Radiation 350
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Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28

Real Climate

In an unchanging climate, the random fluctuations would lead to warming in some parts of the world and cooling in others. In a world with just random local fluctuations but no climate change, about half the weather stations would show a (more or less significant) warming, the other half a cooling. It’s not hard to understand.

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Plastic aerosols in the atmosphere could affect the climate

Physics World

Tiny particles of plastic in the atmosphere can affect Earth’s climate, according to Laura Revell at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand and colleagues. Yet even as airborne microplastics become an ever-larger part of the mix of atmospheric aerosols, their radiative influence is still virtually unknown. Altitude matters.

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Clauser-ology: Cloudy with a chance of meatballs

Real Climate

Also missing is any realization that clouds also contribute to the greenhouse effect (roughly 25% of the total) and so whether cloud changes warm or cool depends very much on where the clouds are (high clouds have a very different effect than low clouds for instance).

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A Nobel pursuit

Real Climate

The key aspects were the inclusion of water vapour feedback as temperatures increased, and the use of ‘convective adjustment’ to maintain stability of the lower atmospheric column. The basic issue stems from the different timescales of the ocean and atmosphere. But let’s go back to the beginning.

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With Climate Change, Nights Are Warming Faster than Days. Why?

Union of Concerned Scientists

That often brings to mind images of people trying to catch some shade under a baking hot sun or city kids cooling off in a fountain while their parents sweat on the sidelines. Global warming is causing there to be more cloud cover over land areas because a warmer atmosphere can essentially hold more moisture. What’s been observed.