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2022 updates to model-observation comparisons

Real Climate

This has now been completed for 2022. This is related to the commentary we published last year ( Hausfather et al, 2022 ), where we show that this screen is a reasonable match to the IPCC AR6 assessed projections that used emulators constrained by observations. 26-29, 2022. Casas, G.A. Schmidt, R.L. Tsigaridis, L.S.

2022 363
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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

For some parts of the spectrum, the IR can be either absorbed by CO 2 or by water vapour or by clouds, but taking those overlaps into account we find that 50% of the greenhouse effect is from water vapour, 25% from clouds, and about 20% from CO 2 and the rest absorbed by ozone, aerosols, and other trace gases ( Schmidt et al, 2010 ).

Radiation 352
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The State of the Air in 2024? Not Great

Union of Concerned Scientists

The air quality for this report was calculated using data reviewed by EPA from 2020, 2021, and 2022. That means it includes the extreme wildfires exacerbated by the fossil fuel industry that burned more than 4% of California in 2021 and 2022. Ozone, too, poses significant risks to respiratory health.

2024 323
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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. That means the greenhouse substances are basically just CO2 and ozone, and they absorb in quite different parts of the spectrum. But why is the stratosphere increasingly chill?

Cooling 282
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Some new CMIP6 MSU comparisons

Real Climate

2022) courtesy of Ben Santer. As with the earlier CMIP6 comparisons, I’ll plot the observational time series against both the full ensemble and the ensemble screened by the transient climate response (TCR) as we recommended in Hausfather et al (2022) , and plot the time series and trend histogram. 26-29, 2022. are matched.

2004 332
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The hole in the ozone layer has opened unusually early this year

New Scientist

The ozone hole over Antarctica may get close to its record size this year due to repercussions from the ferocious Tonga volcano eruption in 2022

Ozone 98
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Spencer’s Shenanigans

Real Climate

2022 – is also clear (the difference between the pink and grey bands). Why is this only showing summer data, for 12 US states (I think Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin) and for the odd time period of 1973-2022? 26-29, 2022. Casas, G.A.