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2022 updates to model-observation comparisons

Real Climate

This has now been completed for 2022. This is related to the commentary we published last year ( Hausfather et al, 2022 ), where we show that this screen is a reasonable match to the IPCC AR6 assessed projections that used emulators constrained by observations. 26-29, 2022. The CMIP3 ensemble continues to astound! Casas, G.A.

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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of infra-red (IR) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from; i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ºC) and, ii) knowing that the planet is normally close to radiative equilibrium. in IPCC TAR).

Radiation 352
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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

So SSU me Like MSU trends, these records reflected a weighted average of atmospheric temperatures, and the three SSU channels progressively weight higher levels in the stratosphere, roughly centered on 30km, 40km and 45km above the surface but with quite a bit of overlap. But why is the stratosphere increasingly chill?

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Some new CMIP6 MSU comparisons

Real Climate

2022) courtesy of Ben Santer. As with the earlier CMIP6 comparisons, I’ll plot the observational time series against both the full ensemble and the ensemble screened by the transient climate response (TCR) as we recommended in Hausfather et al (2022) , and plot the time series and trend histogram. 26-29, 2022. are matched.

2004 352
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Spencer’s Shenanigans

Real Climate

2022 – is also clear (the difference between the pink and grey bands). Why is this only showing summer data, for 12 US states (I think Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin) and for the odd time period of 1973-2022? 26-29, 2022. Casas, G.A.

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A NOAA-STAR dataset is born…

Real Climate

Readers will recall that the TLT product is nominally a weighted average of atmospheric temperature anomalies from the surface up to 5km or so. Thus the similarity of the full period trend (1981-2022) between UAH and NOAA-STAR is somewhat coincidental (0.14/0.20/0.13 The trends prior to 1995 (0.07/0.14/0.16 Hao, and Q.

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Lake Erie’s Failed Algae Strategy Hurts Poor Communities the Most

Circle of Blue

September 20, 2022 . After the 2014 shutdown Toledo spent $53 million to install an ozone treatment system at the city’s drinking water plant to safeguard customers from algal toxins, said Andrew McClure, the plant’s administrator. By Laura Gersony, Circle of Blue. Photographs by J. Carl Ganter, Circle of Blue. Keith Schneider.

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