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A Nobel pursuit

Real Climate

2019 ) gives a good overview of Manabe’s particular philosophy of climate modeling which was very much focused on getting things to work, and not worrying too much about the details. The basic issue stems from the different timescales of the ocean and atmosphere. Manabe’s Climate Modeling. That paper ( Manabe et al.,

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The CO2 problem in six easy steps (2022 Update)

Real Climate

Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect. This means that there is an upward surface flux of IR around (~398 W/m 2 ), while the outward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is roughly equivalent to the net solar radiation absorbed (~240 W/m 2 ). Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect.

Radiation 350
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Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code

Real Climate

Another clue indicating a shortcoming is if you look at the atmospheric CO 2 -concentrations over time to see how much impact the IPCC reports have had on the real policy-makers in the world (Figure below). The cause of our changing climate is the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that we have released into the air.

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A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics

Real Climate

A friend asked me if a discussion paper published on Statistics Norway’s website, ‘ To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions? ’, was purposely timed for the next climate summit ( COP28 ). I don’t know the answer to his question. But this discussion paper is problematic for sure.

Sea Level 351
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A Dangerous Disruption

Legal Planet

The “for one year” part is crucial: stratospheric aerosols stay in the atmosphere roughly a year, so one gram offsets the heating effect of one ton only for the first year after the ton is emitted. SAI can offset the effects of greenhouse gases on global-average temperature, but not their total climatic and environmental effects.

Cooling 364
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Science denial is still an issue ahead of COP28

Real Climate

It is 33 years now since the IPCC in its first report in 1990 concluded that it is “certain” that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities “will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.”

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California Climate Policy: A Preliminary Report Card

Legal Planet

California has done well in terms of total emission reductions – about a 10% reduction from 2009 to 2019. Electric power related emissions went down about 40% from 2009 to 2019. Total direct transportation emissions in 2019 were about the same as those a decade earlier. What’s the Overall Verdict?

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