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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 282
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Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code

Real Climate

The cause of our changing climate is the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that we have released into the air. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the most important greenhouse gas that we have added to the atmosphere, however, some of it has been absorbed by land and oceans. mm increase every year.

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A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

In the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C in 2018, but they represent a significant update since AR5 in 2013. Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). 2018) A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C

2018 358
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Phantastic Job!

Real Climate

There was a workshop in 2018 (that I attended) to discuss how one might go about doing something better – updating the data, improving quality control, and using models to better connect local or regional signals to the global means. and, like many of us, had found the then-current literature somewhat unsatisfactory.

Sea Level 354
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California’s Thirsty Future: The Role of Vapor Pressure Deficit in Our Changing Climate and Drought

Union of Concerned Scientists

California has experienced a significant increase in the extent of forest fires in recent decades, with a fivefold increase in annual burned area from 1972 to 2018. Nearly all the increase in summer forest-fire area from 1972 to 2018 was due to increased VPD.

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Arctic Futures: White Shield or Blue Economy

Legal Planet

Whether other mechanisms that disproportionately cool the Arctic would have the same effects has yet to be modeled, but seems worryingly plausible. If so, any meaningful Arctic cooling program would need a counterbalancing Antarctic cooling program. Open Arctic sea lanes dramatically shorten shipping times from China to Europe.

Ocean 189
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What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

Real Climate

The AMOC has repeatedly shown major instabilities in recent Earth history , for example during the Last Ice Age, prompting concerns about its stability under future global warming, see e.g. Broecker 1987 who warned about “unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse”. For more on this see my Review Paper in Nature.

Ocean 246