article thumbnail

The water south of Greenland has been cooling, so what causes that?

Real Climate

Sea surface temperature trend 1993 – 2018, from European Atlas of the Seas. An AMOC weakening by 15 % thus cools the region at a rate of 0.15 x 10 14 W and according to model simulations can fully explain the observed cooling trend (2). Let’s compare two possibilities by a back-of-envelope calculation. (1) References.

Cooling 344
article thumbnail

CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 282
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

The AMOC is slowing, it’s stable, it’s slowing, no, yes, …

Real Climate

2018 (Fig. 2018 (our Fig. Of the 24 CMIP6 models, a full 23 underestimate the sea surface cooling in the ‘cold blob’ And most of the CMIP6 models even show a strengthening of the AMOC in the historic period, which past studies have shown to be linked to strong aerosol forcing in many of these models (e.g.

Ocean 351
article thumbnail

Risky Drinking Water Pathogen Has Outsized Effect on Black Americans

Circle of Blue

Rooftop cooling towers play a major role in fostering and spreading Legionella bacteria. Legionella bacteria live in lakes and rivers, but they become a public health problem in buildings, where they multiply in the nooks and crannies of plumbing, heating, and cooling systems. An aerial view of New York City. Was it home plumbing?

Cooling 363
article thumbnail

A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

In the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C in 2018, but they represent a significant update since AR5 in 2013. Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). 2018) A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C

2018 358
article thumbnail

Western Grid Regionalization Is Back on the Drawing Board. Why Now?

Union of Concerned Scientists

Back in 2018, California legislators were considering a bill that would have created an independent governance structure for California’s grid operator , the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The 2018 bill did not pass, but the idea never faded. The list goes on, but you get the point.

2018 279
article thumbnail

2022 updates to the temperature records

Real Climate

and La Niña events (2011, 2018, 2021, 2022 etc.) impart a slight cooling. Consequently, a line drawn from an El Niño year to a subsequent La Niña year will almost always show a cooling – a fact well known to the climate disinformers (though they are not so quick to show the uncertainties in such cherry picks!).

2022 324