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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. Thompson et al. We are using the NOAA-STAR version 3.0 of these products (Zou et al.,

Cooling 282
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The water south of Greenland has been cooling, so what causes that?

Real Climate

Sea surface temperature trend 1993 – 2018, from European Atlas of the Seas. An AMOC weakening by 15 % thus cools the region at a rate of 0.15 x 10 14 W and according to model simulations can fully explain the observed cooling trend (2). Let’s compare two possibilities by a back-of-envelope calculation. (1) 44: 1919-1927.

Cooling 344
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Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code

Real Climate

Another clue indicating a shortcoming is if you look at the atmospheric CO 2 -concentrations over time to see how much impact the IPCC reports have had on the real policy-makers in the world (Figure below). The cause of our changing climate is the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that we have released into the air.

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New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”

Real Climate

The paper results from a major computational effort, based on running a state-of-the-art climate model (the CESM model with horizontal resolution 1° for the ocean/sea ice and 2° for the atmosphere/land component) for 4,400 model years. Nature 2018. Figure adapted from Caesar et al.,

Ocean 364
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A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

In the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C in 2018, but they represent a significant update since AR5 in 2013. Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). When adjusting for the emissions since AR5 and SR1.5,

2018 358
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California’s Thirsty Future: The Role of Vapor Pressure Deficit in Our Changing Climate and Drought

Union of Concerned Scientists

The increase regional VPD is mostly attributed to human-cause climate change (68%) and the rest (32%) is attributed to variations in the atmospheric circulation. High atmospheric “thirst” over multiple seasons or years can lead to drought conditions as vegetation dries out, and water flow in streams and rivers decreases.

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Should the official Atlantic hurricane season be lengthened?

Real Climate

The difference is due largely to the differences in the regional atmospheric response that occurs in concert with the SST warming. In particular, they don’t just respond to SST changes, but also how the atmosphere changes as the SSTs change. 191-196, 2018. 2016 ), could increase again in concentration. Mann et al. Rahmstorf, A.

2020 255