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Why is future sea level rise still so uncertain?

Real Climate

Three new papers in the last couple of weeks have each made separate claims about whether sea level rise from the loss of ice in West Antarctica is more or less than you might have thought last month and with more or less certainty.

Sea Level 254
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Dr. Shaina Sadai Talks About COP27, Climate Justice, Sea Level Rise, and Corporate Accountability

Union of Concerned Scientists

An expert on sea level dynamics and climate justice within the UN negotiations, Dr. Sadai is working to ensure that her scientific studies get in the hands of decisionmakers who are shaping our world today. SS: My climate change research journey began in 2015 when I started my Ph.D. at UMass Amherst.

Sea Level 246
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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

Sea level rise is a big deal Use, abuse and misuse of the CMIP6 ensemble The radiative forcing bar chart has gone full circle Droughts and floods are complicated Don’t mention the hiatus. Sea Level Rise: The previous IPCC reports, notably AR4 and AR5 (to a lesser extent) , have had a hard time dealing with SLR.

Sea Level 361
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The water south of Greenland has been cooling, so what causes that?

Real Climate

Finally, some have suggested that the cold blob south of Greenland has been caused by increased heat loss to the atmosphere. Schaffernicht, 2015: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. 2022), Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise, Nature Clim.

Cooling 363
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A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics

Real Climate

are used all over the world, based on calculations that quantify the effects of physical mechanisms and the way different parts of the atmosphere are connected to each other. The physics-based models describe how energy flows through the atmosphere and ocean, as well as how the forces from different air masses push against each other.

Sea Level 352
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The Fossil Fuel Industry Continues Producing Heat-Trapping Emissions that Drive Climate Change

Union of Concerned Scientists

My fellowship is based on using data that trace heat-trapping emissions to major fossil fuel producers in order to understand how they have affected the climate, particularly global sea levels, and to aid efforts to hold these producers accountable. I’ve marked these important years with dotted lines in Figure 2.

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ExxonMobil Accurately Projected Rising Temperatures While Publicly Disparaging Climate Science

Union of Concerned Scientists

Research produced by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) has shown that rising temperatures, sea level rise , and ocean acidification have all been made worse by fossil fuel companies’ activities and products. The company’s own research estimated that to prevent the average temperature from rising beyond 2 degrees Centigrade (3.6