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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

As predicted in 1967 by Manabe and Wetherald , the stratosphere has been cooling. The dominant factors are changes in CO2 (a cooling), ozone depletion (a cooling), warming from big volcanoes, and oscillations related to the solar cycle. So the net effect is less absorption and more emittence, and thus they give a cooling.

Cooling 282
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How not to science

Real Climate

McNider and Christy, Feb 19th 2014, Wall Street Journal Most of the op-ed is a rather tired rehash of faux outrage based on a comment made by John Kerry (the then Secretary of State) and we can skip right past that. Remember ‘satellite cooling’?]. The version of the MSU2R product at the beginning of 2014 was version 5.5,

2014 302
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Not just another dot on the graph?

Real Climate

Only the jump from 2014 to 2015 (coincidentally (?) Of course, the records being set in the UAH TLT record blows the ‘climate has been cooling since 2016’ trope that they used through to about last summer, leaving them no plausible data refuge. In the GISTEMP product, the record was easily broken, and by a record amount.

Ocean 330
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Some new CMIP6 MSU comparisons

Real Climate

Since this is a somewhat differently designed ensemble, I’ll plot that similarly (45 simulations), and note too that these are global means, again, for the corrected-TMT product (for the historical and SSP2-45 scenarios after 2014). Johanson, S.G. Warren, and D.J. 55-58, 2004. Hausfather, K. Marvel, G.A. Schmidt, J.W. 26-29, 2022.

2004 332
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A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). estimate of no further CO 2 -induced warming or cooling once global CO 2 emissions reach and stay at next zero. IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Leitzell, E.

2018 358
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2022 updates to the temperature records

Real Climate

impart a slight cooling. Consequently, a line drawn from an El Niño year to a subsequent La Niña year will almost always show a cooling – a fact well known to the climate disinformers (though they are not so quick to show the uncertainties in such cherry picks!). El Niño events enhance global warming (as in 1998, 2010, 2016 etc.)

2022 324
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Phantastic Job!

Real Climate

It is not as though people have not tried – we discussed this here in 2014, where we made a plea for better graphs of the global temperature. All of which adds to the uncertainty. Now, 10 years later, we finally have something.

Sea Level 354