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CMIP6: Not-so-sudden stratospheric cooling

Real Climate

So SSU me Like MSU trends, these records reflected a weighted average of atmospheric temperatures, and the three SSU channels progressively weight higher levels in the stratosphere, roughly centered on 30km, 40km and 45km above the surface but with quite a bit of overlap. Thompson et al. We are using the NOAA-STAR version 3.0

Cooling 282
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How not to science

Real Climate

I had reason to be reviewing the history of MSU satellite retrievals for atmospheric temperatures recently. McNider and Christy, Feb 19th 2014, Wall Street Journal Most of the op-ed is a rather tired rehash of faux outrage based on a comment made by John Kerry (the then Secretary of State) and we can skip right past that.

2014 302
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Some new CMIP6 MSU comparisons

Real Climate

Since this is a somewhat differently designed ensemble, I’ll plot that similarly (45 simulations), and note too that these are global means, again, for the corrected-TMT product (for the historical and SSP2-45 scenarios after 2014). Tsigaridis, L.S. Nazarenko, S.E. Bauer, and D.T.

2004 332
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How Major Carbon Producers Drive Sea Level Rise and Climate Injustice

Union of Concerned Scientists

Previous attribution research published by my Union of Concerned Scientists colleagues have allowed us to draw causal connections between sources of heat-trapping emissions and resulting impacts, like present day increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, air temperatures, sea levels , ocean acidification , and wildfire burned area.

Sea Level 130
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Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code

Real Climate

Another clue indicating a shortcoming is if you look at the atmospheric CO 2 -concentrations over time to see how much impact the IPCC reports have had on the real policy-makers in the world (Figure below). The cause of our changing climate is the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that we have released into the air.

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A deep dive into the IPCC’s updated carbon budget numbers

Real Climate

Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). Source: Data from IPCC (2014), Rogelj et al (2018), and IPCC (2021). IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. When adjusting for the emissions since AR5 and SR1.5, AR6 remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5C Leitzell, E.

2018 358
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Storm Elliott Knocked Out Fossil-Fuel Power. We’ve Been Here Before.

Union of Concerned Scientists

In Elliott’s aftermath, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration aptly called the storm a “historic arctic outbreak.” Going back a few more years, a polar vortex in January 2014 put much of the eastern half of the country into extreme cold, dropping temperatures 20 to 35 degrees Fahrenheit below average.