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Why is future sea level rise still so uncertain?

Real Climate

Three new papers in the last couple of weeks have each made separate claims about whether sea level rise from the loss of ice in West Antarctica is more or less than you might have thought last month and with more or less certainty.

Sea Level 255
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Arctic Report Card 2024: How Did the Region Fare? Ask the Caribou

Union of Concerned Scientists

For the first time, the Arctic Report Card assessed that the Arctic is faltering as a reliable area for storing carbon away from the atmosphere ( Natalie et al., It was its first failing grade after thousands of years holding onto more carbon than released to the atmosphere. in Arc2024 ). Methane releases were sustained as well.

2024 169
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Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code

Real Climate

The problems with the SPM are similar those from the previous fifth assessment report which prompted me to write a post in 2013. I think in hindsight that my concerns from 2013 to some extent were supported by the fact that the IPCC organised an Expert Meeting on Communication, Oslo, Norway, 9–10 February 2016.

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From Research to Action: The Growing Impact of Attribution Science

Union of Concerned Scientists

By comparing these two data sets, scientists can determine the probability that human activities are responsible for observed changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and other climate change indicators. A study of a 2018 South African drought found that climate change made it three times more likely.

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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

Sea level rise is a big deal Use, abuse and misuse of the CMIP6 ensemble The radiative forcing bar chart has gone full circle Droughts and floods are complicated Don’t mention the hiatus. Sea Level Rise: The previous IPCC reports, notably AR4 and AR5 (to a lesser extent) , have had a hard time dealing with SLR.

Sea Level 361
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A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics

Real Climate

are used all over the world, based on calculations that quantify the effects of physical mechanisms and the way different parts of the atmosphere are connected to each other. The physics-based models describe how energy flows through the atmosphere and ocean, as well as how the forces from different air masses push against each other.

Sea Level 326
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New, Updated Carbon Majors Dataset Holds Promise for Researchers, Litigators

Union of Concerned Scientists

That 2013 headline resulted from the first effort to quantify emissions from the ‘carbon majors’ —fossil fuel companies and cement manufacturers whose businesses have contributed an outsized amount of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere. Nearly two-thirds of industrial heat-trapping emissions can be traced to just 90 entities.