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Why is future sea level rise still so uncertain?

Real Climate

Three new papers in the last couple of weeks have each made separate claims about whether sea level rise from the loss of ice in West Antarctica is more or less than you might have thought last month and with more or less certainty.

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From Research to Action: The Growing Impact of Attribution Science

Union of Concerned Scientists

By comparing these two data sets, scientists can determine the probability that human activities are responsible for observed changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and other climate change indicators. A study of a 2018 South African drought found that climate change made it three times more likely.

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Deciphering the ‘SPM AR6 WG1’ code

Real Climate

The problems with the SPM are similar those from the previous fifth assessment report which prompted me to write a post in 2013. I think in hindsight that my concerns from 2013 to some extent were supported by the fact that the IPCC organised an Expert Meeting on Communication, Oslo, Norway, 9–10 February 2016.

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AR6 of the best

Real Climate

Sea level rise is a big deal Use, abuse and misuse of the CMIP6 ensemble The radiative forcing bar chart has gone full circle Droughts and floods are complicated Don’t mention the hiatus. Sea Level Rise: The previous IPCC reports, notably AR4 and AR5 (to a lesser extent) , have had a hard time dealing with SLR.

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A distraction due to errors, misunderstanding and misguided Norwegian statistics

Real Climate

are used all over the world, based on calculations that quantify the effects of physical mechanisms and the way different parts of the atmosphere are connected to each other. The physics-based models describe how energy flows through the atmosphere and ocean, as well as how the forces from different air masses push against each other.

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ExxonMobil Accurately Projected Rising Temperatures While Publicly Disparaging Climate Science

Union of Concerned Scientists

The new paper in Science summarizes key statements by ExxonMobil executives between 2000 and 2013 that cast doubt on the science. Research produced by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) has shown that rising temperatures, sea level rise , and ocean acidification have all been made worse by fossil fuel companies’ activities and products.

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Melting glaciers have been shifting the Earth’s poles since 1995, new study suggests

Physics World

Part of this movement is an oscillation on a timescale of about a year – caused by short-term fluctuations such as changes in ocean currents and atmospheric pressure. This allowed GRACE to determine the shape of the Earth and monitor changes in sea level, glaciers and groundwater. Amazing GRACE.

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