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The AMOC is slowing, it’s stable, it’s slowing, no, yes, …

Real Climate

The background to this discussion is familiar to our regular readers (else just enter ‘AMOC’ in the RealClimate search field): proper measurements of the AMOC flow are only available since 2004 in the RAPID project , thus for earlier times we need to use indirect clues. 2018 (Fig.

Ocean 351
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Some new CMIP6 MSU comparisons

Real Climate

2004 ) which is a better representation of the mid-troposphere than the classic TMT diagnostic through an adjustment using the lower stratosphere record (i.e. ). Seidel, "Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends", Nature , vol. 55-58, 2004. 2022) courtesy of Ben Santer.

2004 332
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The Rise and Fall of the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”

Real Climate

These interactions were thought to lead to alternating decades-long intervals of warming and cooling centered in the extra-tropical North Atlantic that play out on 40-60 year timescales (hence the name). Background.

Cooling 258
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The AMOC: tipping this century, or not?

Real Climate

We have direct AMOC measurements only since 2004, a time span too short for this type of study. If the AMOC weakens, this region will cool. And in fact it is cooling – it’s the only region on Earth which has cooled since preindustrial times. I’ve seen two main arguments there. From Rahmstorf and Ganopolski 1999.

Ocean 242
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As Soon as Possible

Real Climate

Well, back in 1993 (before the more comprehensive critiques had been published), Hoyt and Schatten put together a long-term estimate of solar activity that relied on the SCL, based on the idea from FCL91 and scaled to a finding about cycling and non-cycling stars that turned out to be wrong too (Wright, 2004). 1273-1278, 2004.

2005 330
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Should the official Atlantic hurricane season be lengthened?

Real Climate

This would have a cooling effect on Atlantic SST, as well as a stabilizing effect on the regional atmosphere ( Dunion and Velden 2004 ), and would be expected to reduce tropical storm formation frequency for some (possibly prolonged) period. 353-366, 2004. 2016 ), could increase again in concentration. Zhang et al. Mann et al.

2020 255
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What is happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?

Real Climate

We don’t have direct measurements over such a long time (only since 2004 from the RAPID project ), but various indirect indications. For more on this see my Review Paper in Nature. The AMOC has weakened over the past hundred years. ” In addition there appear to be decadal oscillations particularly after the mid-20th Century.

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